0.7 percentage points

is the amount by which the average rate of growth in investment in Russia will increase in 2014-2016 as a result of Gazprom’s investment project with China.

The average investment growth rate over these years will rise to +0.5%.

The growth rates of real GDP in 2014-2016 will be higher on average by 0.16 percentage points (the combined effect over these three years will be 0.5 percentage points). In 2017-2020, GDP growth will remain unchanged. In 2021, the year the investment will be completed, GDP growth is expected to decline by 0.5 percentage points. In their predictions, HSE experts not only took into account the direct effect of increased investment and the corresponding increase in imports, but also the indirect effect – growth in household income.

These calculations are presented in the new issue of Commentary on the State and Business, a bulletin published in Russian by the HSE’s Centre of Development Institute.